What your catalog is worth as cash today
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An advance is temporary and a sale is permanent. That's the whole decision. Both are priced off the same number, what your catalog earned over the last twelve months, and direction moves it more than size: a flat catalogue is the easiest to price, so offers cluster tightly around the middle of the market.
Estimates built from publicly stated market ranges, not offers. Real pricing comes from your per-track decay curve, which no calculator can see.